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Data tracker Updated 2026-11-12

Prediction Market Odds

Traders put real money on what happens next. These are the odds on Polymarket and Kalshi for the Fed, Nvidia, AI stocks and crypto, with the biggest 24-hour moves. Snapshot taken 2026-11-12 at 01:21 UTC.

Hottest Kalshi market
88%
When will Jensen Huang leave as Nvidia CEO? Before Jan 1, 2027, $2.4M traded
Biggest 24h move
+70 pts
Polymarket: Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31…
Markets tracked
32
28 on Polymarket, 4 on Kalshi
Hottest market on Kalshi: When will Jensen Huang leave as Nvidia CEO?
OutcomeOddsTraded
Before Nov 12, 202633%
$1.4M
Before Nov 13, 202662%
$492K
Before Nov 14, 202671%
$289K
Before Nov 15, 202672%
$159K
Before Nov 16, 202675%
$108K
Before Nov 17, 202677%
$63.0K
Before Nov 18, 202679%
$32.6K
Before Nov 19, 202682%
$31.4K
Before Nov 20, 202681%
$101K
Before Dec 1, 202684%
$676K
Before Jan 1, 202788%
$2.4M
Before Jul 1, 202793%
$888K
Before Jan 1, 202895%
$356K
Before Jan 1, 202995%
$65.9K
Before Jan 1, 203197%
$27.2K
Before Jan 1, 203397%
$55.7K

Odds are what traders pay, not a fact. The market shown is whichever multi-outcome Kalshi market was most traded in the last 24 hours, so it changes with the news. See the market on Kalshi.

Biggest moves in 24 hours
MarketWhereYes24h
Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31, 2026?Polymarket 86%+70.0
When will Jensen Huang leave as Nvidia CEO? — Before Jan 1, 2027Kalshi 88%+70.0
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Polymarket 87%+7.2
Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day?Polymarket 20%+5.5
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30, 2026?Polymarket 4%-4.1
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on November 12?Polymarket 98%+3.1
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?Polymarket 18%+3.0
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in November?Polymarket 80%-3.0
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 0.9T and 1.2T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?Polymarket 13%+2.7
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on November 13?Polymarket 2%-2.4
Polymarket: most traded
MarketYes24hTraded 24hCloses
Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31, 2026? +6 more 86%+70.0 $2.7MFri, Jan 1, 2027
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting? +4 more 10%-0.4 $630KWed, Dec 9
Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day? +9 more 20%+5.5 $209KSat, Jan 1, 2028
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting? +4 more 0%-0.1 $187KThu, Jan 28, 2027
AI bubble burst in 2026? 11%+2.0 $122KFri, Jan 1, 2027
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 November 9-15? +3 more 2%-0.5 $68.0KMon, Nov 16
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? +4 more 6%+1.0 $66.3KTue, Jan 5, 2027
Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on November 11? +9 more 15%0 $63.3KThu, Nov 12
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on November 12? +8 more 100%+0.5 $57.5KThu, Nov 12
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? +9 more 16%0 $57.0KFri, Jan 1, 2027
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 November 9-15? +9 more 2%-0.5 $49.7KMon, Nov 16
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 on November 11? +1 more 0%0 $45.2KThu, Nov 12
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? +3 more 18%+3.0 $44.0KTue, Dec 1
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? +5 more 87%+7.2 $40.3KFri, Jan 1, 2027
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 0.9T and 1.2T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? 13%+2.7 $38.0KSat, Jan 1, 2028
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30, 2026? +2 more 4%-4.1 $36.0KTue, Dec 1
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? +3 more 98%+0.6 $33.4KFri, Jan 1, 2027
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on November 12? +2 more 98%+3.1 $31.5KThu, Nov 12
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? +1 more 7%+2.2 $31.1KSat, Jan 2, 2027
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in November? +3 more 80%-3.0 $26.1KTue, Dec 1
Another Fed rate hike in 2026? 96%+0.9 $25.8KThu, Dec 10
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≤1.0% at the end of 2026? 2%+1.2 $25.7KFri, Jan 1, 2027
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? +1 more 4%0 $25.6KFri, Jan 1, 2027
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on November 13? 2%-2.4 $22.6KFri, Nov 13
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? 14%-0.2 $20.6KFri, Jan 1, 2027
Kalshi: most traded
MarketYes24hTraded 24hCloses
When will Jensen Huang leave as Nvidia CEO? — Before Jan 1, 2027 88%+70.0 $1.9MFri, Jan 1, 2027
When will Jensen Huang leave the Nvidia board? — Before Jan 1, 2027 75%+75.0 $3.4KFri, Jan 1, 2027
When will any company achieve AGI? — Before Apr 1, 2027 18%+2.0 $2.6KThu, Apr 1, 2027
Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first? — OpenAI 2%+1.0 $2.0KSun, Jan 1, 2040

How to read this. "Yes" is the price of a Yes share, from 0 to 100 cents, which is the market's implied chance. "24h" is the change in points since yesterday. Markets are picked by keyword (Fed, inflation, big tech, AI, crypto and similar) and need at least $2.0K traded in 24 hours; where a market is a ladder of dates or levels, only the most traded one is shown. Thin markets can swing on one trade. Not investment advice. Source: Polymarket (gamma-api.polymarket.com) and Kalshi (trade-api/v2). The data is free to reuse with attribution: /api/markets.json.