West Texas Intermediate crude fell 2.36% to $95.70 a barrel on Tuesday, erasing an earlier climb above $100 that had marked a one-month high. The reversal coincided with a report from Israel's Channel 12 News that a compromise proposal, conveyed by Pakistan's army chief, had won approval from Washington and preliminary agreement from Tehran.
The proposal and the intermediaries
Pakistan and Qatar are acting as go-betweens in an effort to restart negotiations and lower the temperature in the Middle East. The precise terms remain undisclosed, but the outline described by Channel 12 involves a partial response to Iran's demand for the release of frozen funds. Interest on roughly $6 billion held in Qatari banks would be transferred to Tehran, leaving the principal untouched. In parallel, Iran has reportedly agreed to a confidential visit by International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors to its nuclear facilities, a step intended to address US concerns without the fanfare of a public announcement.
What the market is pricing
The drop takes the geopolitical risk premium down a notch, though traders are careful to note that a preliminary agreement is not a final deal. No official confirmation has been issued by either capital, and the extent of the commitments on both sides is still uncertain. WTI's intraday swing, from above $100 to the mid-$95s, shows how thin the bid becomes when headlines replace fundamentals.
Technical context
On the four-hour chart the contract sits at $95.61, still above the 100-period simple moving average at $92.00 and the 200-period average at $93.15. The 14-period Relative Strength Index reads 46, indicating a pause in upside momentum rather than a trend reversal. Immediate support is the $95.00 horizontal level, with the two moving averages below that. Resistance remains the prior cap at $101.05; a sustained break there would be needed to revive the broader bullish bias.