Peter Thiel’s Thiel Macro allocated 42 percent of its portfolio to two artificial intelligence holdings in the second quarter, a concentration that has coincided with the fund outperforming the S&P 500 over the last six quarters despite carrying zero equities in two of those periods. The positions, Amazon at 28 percent and Vistra Energy at 14 percent, reflect a bet on the infrastructure layer of the AI buildout rather than the semiconductor names that have dominated headlines.
The numbers behind the concentration
Thiel Macro’s 28 percent stake in Amazon makes it the fund’s largest position. The firm purchased the shares in the second quarter, adding to a track record that shows the portfolio beating the benchmark over six quarters even while sitting entirely in cash for two of them. Vistra, the largest competitive power producer in the United States, accounts for the other 14 percent and was also acquired in the quarter.
Amazon’s cloud momentum
Amazon Web Services revenue rose 37 percent in the second quarter, the fastest pace in more than four years, a signal that the company’s custom silicon and platform investments are converting into growth. The stock trades at 21 times earnings while Wall Street models project 21 percent annual earnings growth over the next three years. The median analyst target of $330 implies 27 percent upside from the current $259 level, though that consensus rests on the infrastructure cycle maintaining its trajectory.
Vistra’s power play
Goldman Sachs estimates U.S. data center power demand will reach 66 gigawatts next year, more than double the 31 gigawatts recorded last year. Broader electricity demand is projected to compound at 3.5 percent annually through 2030, up from roughly zero in the prior decade, driven largely by AI infrastructure spending. Vistra has locked in long-term visibility through a 2.6 gigawatt nuclear power purchase agreement with Meta Platforms spanning two decades and a similar deal with Amazon, positioning the generator to capture the upshift in baseload demand.
The valuation lens
The source notes that Vistra’s earnings can be distorted by non-cash derivative hedges, making price-to-operating-cash-flow the preferred metric. For Amazon, the 21-times multiple sits against a growth rate that mirrors the valuation, a symmetry that only holds if AWS maintains its current acceleration. Thiel’s concentration says the fund expects both to hold.