Deutsche Bank's Robin Winkler says the consensus forecast for Germany, growth near 1% in 2027 fading to zero by 2030, rests on an assumption that sits awkwardly alongside the global AI investment boom now driving the expansion.
The consensus path
Germany's economic institutes project GDP growth around 1% in 2027 before demographics pull it toward zero by decade's end. That path assumes productivity stays too weak to offset the accelerating drag from an aging workforce, even as a fiscal expansion and cyclical recovery provide near-term support.
The AI inconsistency
Winkler argues the outlook implies a contradictory scenario: AI is powerful enough to sustain a global capex and asset-price boom, yet not powerful enough to deliver measurable productivity gains in Germany by 2030. Germany could simply be slow to capture the benefits, or other headwinds could cancel them out.
The alternative risk
If AI fails to lift productivity noticeably, the global investment boom itself becomes vulnerable next year. As new datacenters hit balance sheets, investors will demand revenues that match the scale of spending.
What comes next
The range of outcomes is wide. Productivity could surge by the late 2020s, the investment bubble could burst as early as next year, or both could happen. What looks unlikely is a smooth continuation of the current AI capex cycle that ultimately yields no productivity payoff at all.