California's billionaires have assembled a $110 million war chest to defeat a November ballot measure that would impose a one-time 5% levy on net worth above $1 billion, with the latest campaign filings showing John Doerr and Chris Larsen adding $17.5 million to the opposition effort.
The money and the measure
Venture capitalist Doerr, worth $22.6 billion according to Forbes, contributed $7.5 million to Building a Better California, the PAC formed this year to fight Proposition 40. Ripple executive chair Larsen, worth $11.4 billion, added $10 million. Multimillionaires John Hering and Neil Mehta chipped in $946,000 and $250,000 respectively. The PAC reported the $110 million endowment as of late June, before these latest injections. Google cofounder Sergey Brin has directed $102 million to the cause and moved assets out of the state late last year; an additional $20 million from Brin was recorded in the same filing period.
The polling picture
A UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies survey of more than 4,000 registered voters found the electorate nearly split: 48% of likely voters support the measure, 41% oppose it. The divide runs along partisan lines. Registered Democrats overwhelmingly back the tax. Unaffiliated voters break 50% in favor. Republicans oppose it 80% to 20%. "These results suggest that the Billionaires Tax initiative is shaping up to be a closely fought contest, with the key question being whether opponents can make big enough inroads among the state's traditionally Democratic-leaning voters," said Eric Schickler, the institute's codirector.
The counter-play
Building a Better California is not relying on a straight up-or-down vote. The PAC has qualified two competing measures, Proposition 41 and Proposition 42, either of which would nullify the billionaire tax if it draws more votes, even if the tax itself passes. Proposition 41 would mandate an auditor review of any special tax before it reaches the ballot. Proposition 42 would prohibit new taxes based solely on asset ownership, which is typically taxed only upon sale. Awareness is lopsided: 72% of voters have heard of the billionaire tax, while fewer than a third know the counter-initiatives exist.
The political split
The opposition effort has reserved $87 million in advertising time ahead of November. Governor Gavin Newsom and Democratic gubernatorial candidate Xavier Becerra have both come out against the tax. In a setback for the billionaire bloc, the California Democratic Party endorsed the proposal this month. The party's backing gives the measure institutional muscle that the PAC's advertising reserve will try to overcome.