Peter Thiel’s investment vehicle Thiel Macro liquidated its entire portfolio in the third quarter of 2025 and stayed on the sidelines for three quarters before deploying capital again in the second quarter of 2026. The fund added eight positions. The largest was Amazon, a stock that has risen 560 percent over the past decade. Thiel does not hold Nvidia. Amazon is the only technology name in the portfolio; the other seven holdings are energy companies.
The energy overlay is the actual thesis
The sector concentration suggests Thiel is betting on the power constraint rather than the compute layer. The logic is straightforward: AI data centers require massive electricity, and the bottleneck may prove to be generation and transmission rather than chips. By owning energy producers instead of the semiconductor leader, Thiel Macro is effectively shorting the assumption that GPU supply remains the binding constraint.
Amazon’s own numbers are doing the heavy lifting
The company reported second-quarter revenue of $201 billion, up 20 percent year over year and the fifth consecutive acceleration. Operating income rose 43 percent to $28 billion, a figure that excludes unrealized gains from its Anthropic stake. AWS revenue grew 37 percent, the fastest pace in eighteen quarters. Management guided to $220 billion in capital expenditure for the year, up from $128 billion in 2025. Triple-digit revenue growth from AI workloads inside AWS accompanied the spend increase.
The robotics line item is quietly material
Morgan Stanley analyst Brian Nowak estimates fulfillment and shipping costs consume 36 percent of retail revenue. Amazon is already the largest operator of industrial mobile robots. The latest Proteus units accept natural-language commands from workers. "We see a long runway for further efficiency improvements in fulfillment and shipping costs, in particular with robotics," Nowak writes. If automation converts even a fraction of that 36 percent into margin, the earnings leverage is significant without requiring any new consumer behavior.
AWS has a path to a trillion-dollar run rate
Morgan Stanley projects AWS could reach $1 trillion in revenue by 2035, implying 21 percent annual growth over the next nine-plus years. The forecast rests on proprietary Trainium chips and AI agents monetized on top of the existing customer base. CEO Andy Jassy framed the payback on the earnings call: "As we get a few years out and the revenue growth outpaces the incremental capex growth, which will happen at some point, the resulting revenue, free cash flow, and return on invested capital is very compelling." Most Wall Street analysts rate the stock undervalued.