Elon Musk confirmed on SpaceX's latest earnings call that a combination with Tesla is under active review by special committees at both companies, though he acknowledged the Tesla shareholder vote requires support from half of all outstanding shares rather than a simple majority of those cast. Prediction market Kalshi currently prices the probability of a deal before May 2027 at 59 percent.
Voting structure creates asymmetric hurdles
Musk controls roughly 85 percent of voting power at SpaceX through a dual-class share structure that concentrates authority in his Class B holdings. At Tesla, where no such structure exists, his stake sits at 19.8 percent according to the latest proxy filing. A SpaceX regulatory filing disclosed that Musk has stepped aside from negotiations because of a conflict of interest, leaving approval to the special committees, the boards, and ultimately shareholders. On the Tesla side, the threshold is absolute: 50 percent of every share issued must vote yes, not merely a majority of votes cast.
Regulatory and political headwinds
Counterpoint Research analyst Kevin Li flagged antitrust scrutiny, national security reviews tied to SpaceX military contracts, and cross-border regulatory filings as significant obstacles. Musk's political spending, roughly $445 million directed to Republican super PACs this cycle, adds another variable. Kalshi's own markets show Democrats favored to retake both chambers of Congress in the midterms, potentially shifting the regulatory environment before any deal closes.
Valuation expectations stay modest
Future Fund managing partner Gary Black projects an all-stock offer valuing Tesla at $420 per share, roughly 13 percent above current levels. He characterizes the economics as diluted and uncompelling for Tesla holders. The market appears to agree: with deal chatter already widespread, much of any merger premium is likely embedded in the current price.