Microsoft will pay its quarterly dividend of $0.91 per share on Sept. 10, a sum declared in June, but the market's attention is fixed on the board's habitual September announcement of a raise.
The pattern holds
For 16 consecutive years the software maker has lifted its payout every September. The most recent increase, unveiled Sept. 15, 2025, moved the quarterly rate from $0.83 to $0.91, a gain just shy of 10%. Each of the past six hikes has fallen in a narrow band between 9.6% and 10.7%, and over the ten years ending in 2025 the quarterly payment rose from $0.36 to $0.91, a compound annual rate of about 9.7%.
What the math suggests
Applying that same range to the current $0.91 payment puts the next quarterly figure between about $1.00 and $1.01. That translates to an annualized $4.00 per share, implying another increase of roughly 10%, assuming the board sticks to its calendar, which it has not yet confirmed.
Capital spending presses on cash
The wildcard is the company's investment surge. Capital expenditures in the fiscal year ended June 30 jumped 80% to $115.9 billion as Microsoft builds out AI data-center capacity. Operating cash flow rose 34% to $182.9 billion, yet free cash flow after those outlays slipped to about $67 billion from roughly $72 billion a year earlier.
Earnings grow faster than the payout
Revenue climbed 18% to $331.8 billion in fiscal 2026, Azure revenue topped $100 billion on a 41% gain, and net income surged 31% to $133.7 billion. The dividend currently costs about $27 billion a year, roughly 15% of operating cash flow and 20% of the $17.95 per share earned. A 10% bump would add around $2.7 billion to that tab, a sum the company's free cash flow still covers more than twice over.
The only question is the exact figure
If the spending pressure forces a deviation, the likeliest outcome is a raise at the lower end of the historical band rather than a break from it.