Micron shares have more than tripled in 2026 to $958.73, and a straightforward earnings multiple applied to Wall Street's 2027 estimates puts the stock above $3,000, but only if the memory chip shortage that has driven the rally refuses to break.
The arithmetic is simple enough
Analysts expect 85 percent revenue growth in the fiscal year that starts after the September 3 quarter, with earnings per share reaching $155. At the 21-times-earnings multiple where Micron has typically traded outside of demand downdrafts, that math yields $3,255 a share. The company guided for $50 billion in revenue for the quarter just ending, a figure it has a habit of surpassing.
The cycle is the catch
Memory markets have always swung between glut and scarcity. The current upcycle is the largest Micron or its peers have ever recorded, fed by AI data-center build-outs absorbing NAND and DRAM supply faster than foundries can add it. If that imbalance persists into late 2028 or 2029, the $3,000 projection holds. If supply catches up in 2028, both earnings and the multiple could compress at once.
What matters next is not earnings but duration
Investors are being asked to bet on the length of a shortage, not the quality of a franchise. The stock has already priced a generous slice of the upside; the rest depends on a cyclical clock that no analyst controls.