The average cost to move a barrel of oil around the world has jumped to $20 from $3 a year ago, and Goldman Sachs says the surge is unlikely to reverse while the Iran war keeps the Strait of Hormuz on a war footing. The bank’s commodity analysts flagged the freight spike as an upside risk to their year-end Brent forecast of $90 a barrel, noting that higher-for-longer shipping costs sit alongside the threat of more attacks on tankers, damage to export infrastructure and a stickier geopolitical risk premium.
Freight math adds up to $20
Goldman breaks the $20 average into three pieces: a $7 war-risk premium for transiting Hormuz, $4 from higher bunker fuel prices and $4 tied up in ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman that keep vessels off the broader market. Rates on Middle East routes alone have climbed to $35 a barrel, reflecting the cost of rerouting and the shrinking pool of available hulls.
Supertankers hit $1.4 million a day
Daily hire for a very large crude carrier on the Gulf-to-East Asia run topped $1.4 million in early October, a record. The Iran conflict has forced cargoes onto longer, less efficient voyages, absorbing tanker capacity that would otherwise serve other routes. The squeeze has spilled into the Aframax and Suezmax segments, where daily rates have also surged as charterers scramble for smaller ships to fill the gap.
Forecast risk is asymmetric
Goldman’s $90 Brent target already bakes in a geopolitical premium, but the analysts argue the freight component is now large enough and persistent enough to push spot prices above that level even if physical supply holds. The note stops short of raising the formal forecast, framing the freight shock as an asymmetric risk rather than a new baseline.