The conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran has added $330 billion to the world's energy import tab over the six months through August, according to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, a Finland-based climate think tank. The figure measures what importers actually paid for oil, fuels and liquefied natural gas against what analysts had forecast before the fighting erupted in late February.
The breakdown tells the story
Crude oil accounted for $164.1 billion of the excess, the single largest component. Diesel and gasoil followed at $73.8 billion, while gasoline added $35.7 billion. LNG imports ran $38 billion above pre-war expectations, and jet fuel contributed another $20 billion. CREA noted its calculations reflect actual purchase volumes, not the higher quantities countries would have bought absent the conflict, demand was crimped by the price surge itself.
Europe bears the brunt
The European Union absorbed $78 billion in additional costs, the steepest regional hit. The bloc's exposure stems from heavy reliance on foreign oil and gas, particularly U.S. crude and LNG, after sanctions severed Russian supply. Domestic production is negligible, and Norway, the EU's largest local provider, faces export constraints. LNG prices in Europe have averaged 60 percent above pre-war forecasts over the period.
China's stockpile draw cushioned the blow
China, the world's largest crude and LNG importer, incurred $35 billion in extra spending. But the figure would have been far higher had Beijing not slashed imports and tapped strategic reserves estimated at 1 billion to 1.4 billion barrels at year-start. Analysts argue this demand destruction prevented a full-blown oil price crisis. LNG in Asia has averaged 75 percent above pre-war expectations.
India's geography amplified the pain
India paid $22 billion more, a reflection of import dependence exceeding even the EU's. The country's historic reliance on Middle Eastern crude left it directly exposed when Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for the initial strikes. Other Asian economies also recorded billions in incremental costs across crude, gas and refined products.
The tab is still running
The war continues, and the bill could climb further. European buyers face potential winter gas shortages unless they accelerate purchasing now, while Asian demand remains firm. Both regional LNG benchmarks are expected to hold at current elevated levels or move higher. The Persian Gulf disruption, CREA said, ranks as the most significant since the 1990 Gulf War.