Private economists surveyed by the Bank of Mexico lowered their inflation projections for this year and next while lifting the growth outlook, and they see the central bank keeping its policy rate unchanged at 6.50% through the end of 2027.
Inflation forecasts edge lower
The median headline forecast for 2026 slipped to 3.87 percent from 3.90 percent in the August round, while the core estimate fell to 3.90 percent from 3.99 percent. Both remain above the 3 percent midpoint of Banxico’s tolerance band. For 2027, headline inflation is seen at 3.82 percent and core at 3.78 percent, a gradual grind toward target that leaves little urgency for aggressive easing.
Growth outlook improves modestly
Gross domestic product is now expected to expand 1.40 percent this year, up from the 1.30 percent projection two months ago. The revision is small but directionally consistent with resilient domestic demand and a still-tight labor market. The survey does not break down the drivers, though the upward nudge aligns with recent data showing consumption holding up better than export orders.
Rate path stays flat
Analysts see no move in the overnight rate through the end of next year. The 6.50 percent level has been in place since the last meeting, and the consensus implies Banxico will wait for the Federal Reserve to cut first, or at least signal a clear pivot, before adjusting. The central bank’s eight-meeting calendar and its habit of gathering a week after the Fed reinforce that sequencing.
Peso trajectory and the Fed link
The peso is projected to weaken to 17.50 per dollar by year-end and to 18.04 by the close of 2027. That path assumes a narrowing rate differential as the Fed eventually eases while Banxico holds. The currency forecast is less a conviction call than a mechanical output of the interest-rate assumption; if the Fed cuts faster or slower, the peso numbers will be the first to reprice.