Coinbase chief executive Brian Armstrong told Fox Business this week that Bitcoin is "very likely" to trade between $300,000 and $400,000 by 2030, a forecast that quietly halves the $1 million target he floated a year ago.
The math behind the new range
Reaching the lower bound from current levels would require a 31.6% compound annual growth rate through decade-end; the upper bound demands 41.4%. Armstrong's presentation cited a 33.6% CAGR from August 2017 through July 2026 as precedent, a span that included a 73% drawdown in 2018, a 64% drop in 2022, and a 36% decline from the October 2025 peak of $126,000.
The catalyst argument
Armstrong attributed the next leg higher to passage of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, legislation he said would lift the entire crypto market. The bill has not yet become law, and no timeline for enactment was offered.
The retreat from seven figures
Twelve months ago, with Bitcoin rallying toward a new high, Armstrong and Ark Invest's Cathie Wood both pointed to $1 million by 2030. The subsequent decline has forced an industry-wide recalibration. The current forecast implies investors should settle for 30% to 40% annual returns rather than the doubling pace that characterized earlier cycles.
The year-end hinge
The entire projection rests on Bitcoin closing 2026 near $100,000, a level Armstrong said would rekindle retail and institutional interest. August delivered a 25% gain, but the path from here remains unspecified.