Zcash traded at $1,333.50 on Thursday, down 7.3% on the session and roughly 21% below the $1,698 high reached in late September. The pullback follows a 253% surge from a $480.72 base, and it arrives as the first net outflow hits the Grayscale Zcash ETF since its August launch. Bitcoin offered no cushion, spiking to $85,600 Wednesday on soft PCE data before reversing, while the 10-year Treasury yield held at 5.29% and CME FedWatch data showed October rate-hike odds dropping from 70% to under 50%.

The ETF flow reversal

Grayscale’s ZCSH fund debuted on August 25 and gathered $233 million in net inflows by mid-September. On September 30, the day a 3-for-1 share split took effect, the fund posted a $30.25 million net outflow, bringing cumulative net inflows to about $268 million. The reversal is modest in absolute terms but notable as the first negative print since inception.

Hack fallout and sentiment

The Bitget exchange hack on September 24 compounds the backdrop. Losses were revised to roughly $387 million from an initial $351.6 million estimate after investigators traced transfers across the Zcash and Tron chains. Bitget’s chief executive said the methods match North Korean-linked groups, though formal attribution remains pending. On Wednesday, blockchain researcher ZachXBT identified 2,746 ZEC, about $3.9 million, moving from hack-tied addresses into Zcash’s shielded pool, where transaction details are obscured. The sum is small relative to the asset’s market cap, but the optics are poor for a protocol courting institutional adoption.

Technicals still bullish but cooling

Momentum gauges reflect a market catching its breath. The Relative Strength Index sits at 50.2, neutral after extended overbought readings during the rally. The Average Directional Index reads 52, signaling a strong trend, though the indicator lags and largely captures the vertical ascent. The 50-day exponential moving average remains above the 200-day, preserving the bullish structure on paper. A sustained decline would be needed to force a crossover, which the data suggest is not imminent.

Historical context and key levels

A 21% correction after a 253% run is not anomalous. In June, ZEC fell from $635 to an intraday low of $309 after a critical vulnerability in the shielded pool was disclosed, then rebounded above $1,600. The current pattern resembles that episode more than a trend break. A daily close below $1,233 would activate the next support zone, while a recovery above $1,410.72 would signal the uptrend resuming.