Tesla shares have given back about 7% of their August gains in two sessions, pressured by softer delivery forecasts, even as the company finally puts its long-delayed heavy-duty truck into volume production at a new Nevada factory. The stock traded at $353.93, down 0.98% on the day, with a price-to-earnings ratio near 328 and a consensus 12-month target of $410.98.
The truck arrives nine years late
A dedicated plant alongside Tesla's existing Nevada operations is now running, built to produce as many as 50,000 electric trucks annually at full capacity. The long-range model is rated for 500 miles hauling a full load, while a shorter-range version targets regional routes. PepsiCo has operated early units since 2022, and a growing roster of logistics and freight companies has placed orders numbering in the hundreds.
Diesel economics shift in Tesla's favor
Record diesel prices this month have strengthened the Semi's cost case beyond what earlier studies projected. Independent analyses already showed meaningful lifetime savings versus diesel trucks using fuel costs well below current levels; the recent surge only widens that gap. The calculus flips if electricity prices climb, leaving fleets without cheap depot charging facing a murkier decision.
Analysts stay skeptical on stock impact
MarketBeat's consensus remains a Hold, and the recent price action suggests investors are not rushing to reprice the shares on the production news. The 12-month forecast of $410.98 implies roughly 16% upside from current levels, based on 47 analyst ratings.
Price targets show wide disagreement
Cantor Fitzgerald reiterated an Overweight rating this week with a $485 target, nearly 40% above the current quote. BNP Paribas, by contrast, sees $268. The $217 spread between the two calls frames the broader debate: whether the Semi becomes a meaningful earnings driver or stays a niche sidebar to the automotive and autonomy narratives that still dominate the valuation.