SpaceX’s xAI unit posted $2.56 billion of revenue in the June quarter, up 213 percent from $818 million a year earlier, a growth rate that leaves Alphabet’s headline AI segments in the shade. But the market is pricing the two companies on different planets: analysts project SpaceX will generate $44.6 billion in 2026, implying a valuation near 41 times sales, while Alphabet has rarely broken 10 times sales in two decades.
The xAI numbers
The acquisition of xAI gave SpaceX a pure-play AI revenue line that is easy to isolate. Grok, the large language model developed by xAI, and the X platform formerly known as Twitter now sit inside SpaceX’s consolidated results. The quarter’s $2.56 billion represents a tripling of the year-ago figure, but it still accounts for only a third of SpaceX’s total $7.8 billion in quarterly revenue. The company posted a $143 million operating loss for the period.
Google Cloud scale
Alphabet does not break out its model revenue the same way, but its cloud division is impossible to ignore. Google Cloud revenue rose 82 percent year over year to $24.8 billion in the same quarter, more than three times SpaceX’s entire top line. The segment generated $8.8 billion of operating profit, a margin profile that SpaceX has yet to demonstrate. Cloud demand is being driven by AI startups renting compute rather than building it, a tailwind that shows no sign of abating.
Valuation disconnect
The 41-times-sales multiple on SpaceX rests on forward estimates, not trailing results. Alphabet touched 25 times sales only at its initial public offering, when its growth rate was higher than today’s. The gap suggests investors are paying for SpaceX’s narrative, rockets, satellites, and now a chatbot, while Alphabet’s AI exposure comes bundled with a profitable, cash-generating infrastructure business that already operates at hyperscale.
What to watch
Analyst revisions to the $44.6 billion consensus will be the first test of whether SpaceX’s growth trajectory justifies the premium. For Alphabet, the signal is simpler: cloud revenue growth holding above 80 percent with expanding margins. The market has decided which business model it trusts; the next few quarters will show whether the math catches up.