Four months after SpaceX’s $75bn June flotation, the anticipated cascade of major listings has not materialised. Instead, a string of high-profile issuers, Oura, SB Energy, EG Group, Holtec, have pulled or postponed deals, leaving the pipeline thinner than bankers forecast in July.
Valuation expectations outpace demand
Renaissance Capital analysts say issuers entered the autumn with price targets that today’s market will not support. SB Energy, backed by SoftBank, was seeking $50bn despite having brought no data centres online. Oura aimed to raise up to $2.2bn at a $15.6bn valuation before citing “uncertainty in the IPO market” last week. Holtec withdrew its filing last month, also blaming conditions. The common thread: sellers priced for a momentum market that evaporated.
AI heavyweights retreat
The two most watched names have both stepped back. Anthropic, which had been racing toward a $2tn valuation, now targets a mid-November debut. OpenAI has pushed its timeline to 2027. Their hesitation signals that even the sector’s premium assets are unwilling to test the bid at current levels.
Post-debut performance undermines confidence
SpaceX shares jumped 19% on day one but have since drifted to roughly $158.9. In Shanghai, Unitree Robotics surged 460% above its offer price in its first session, only to surrender 46.7% of that gain. Renaissance Capital argues the recent withdrawals reflect not adverse conditions but a return to normalised pricing discipline, a view that sits uncomfortably with issuers still anchoring to peak multiples.
Macro headwinds broaden the freeze
Volatile oil prices from the Middle East conflict and rising bond yields have given non-AI companies cover to delay. EG Group and Holtec both pointed to wider market volatility. In the UK, only seven listings raised £577m in the first half of 2026, per EY. Uzbekistan’s Uznif, which sold a 30% stake across London and Tashkent in May, stands as the year’s sole notable London arrival. PwC’s Kat Kravtsov says most visible pipelines now target early 2027, with investors weighing fiscal, monetary and geopolitical risks against long-term optimism.
A tentative London test
Airtel Money’s £5.3bn debut, set for 14 October, will be the first real test of UK appetite since the summer. Money managers remain cautious. If the African payments firm prices and trades well, it could crack the logjam. If it struggles, the 2027 pipeline stays theoretical.