Palantir beat second-quarter estimates and lifted its full-year revenue forecast to $8.15-8.16 billion from $7.65-7.66 billion after U.S. commercial revenue surged 149 percent year over year to $764 million. The stock rose 12 percent in after-hours trading, clawing back a portion of the 29 percent decline it had suffered this year on fears the AI software trade was losing momentum.
The numbers that moved the stock
Adjusted earnings per share came in at 41 cents versus 35 cents expected on revenue of $1.94 billion against a $1.80 billion consensus. GAAP net income was $1.07 billion, or 41 cents a share, up from $329 million and 13 cents a year earlier. Revenue nearly doubled from roughly $1 billion in the year-ago quarter, a 93 percent increase that CEO Alex Karp described on CNBC as unprecedented for a business at this scale.
Commercial growth outpaces government
U.S. government revenue grew 90 percent to $809 million, but the commercial side is now the faster horse. The $764 million in U.S. commercial revenue represents a 380 percent compounded increase since 2024, and remaining deal value more than doubled to $6.24 billion. Palantir now expects 2026 U.S. commercial revenue in excess of $3.42 billion, up from prior guidance of $3.22 billion.
The open-weight bet
Karp used the earnings platform to argue that open-weight models are the only way U.S. enterprise software stays competitive with Chinese equivalents, a position he reiterated in a joint industry letter last month urging regulators not to restrict open models. He told CNBC the current growth trajectory looks sustainable for at least another 18 months. Whether that confidence survives the next guidance cycle is the only forecast that matters.