JPMorgan Chase chief executive Jamie Dimon said hyperscaler artificial intelligence spending could reach $1 trillion next year, a figure that would more than triple the roughly $300 billion deployed last year and exceed the $700 billion pace he sees for 2026. The outlay, he told CNBC-TV18 at the firm’s India conference, is already adding about one percentage point to annual GDP growth while feeding near-term price pressures through hiring, factory construction, power-plant builds and equipment orders.
The spending trajectory
Dimon described the ramp as an “unbelievable technology” whose rapid expansion “looks like it’s going to continue.” The $700 billion current run rate already represents a more-than-doubling from 2025 levels. He compared the diffusion pattern to the internet bubble, where many early favorites failed and previously obscure names emerged as the eventual winners, arguing it is too early to identify which AI vendors will capture the economics.
The inflation calculus
The near-term impact is mixed. Dimon said the capital intensity “may add a little bit to inflation” as companies compete for labor, materials and energy. Over the longer horizon he expects a deflationary effect from productivity gains. On the policy side, he said the Federal Reserve should hold to its 2 percent target even as he acknowledged price pressure might not ease and “may even go up a little bit.”
The returns question
Asked how companies justify the outlay, Dimon said the calculation is not always a straightforward return on investment. “Sometimes it’s just table stakes,” he said, citing customer-experience improvements that are difficult to quantify. He added that deployment efficiency could improve over time, lowering the incremental cost of each AI workload.
The macro backdrop
Beyond AI, Dimon pointed to infrastructure needs, remilitarization and persistent government deficits as concurrent sources of capital demand that may push interest rates higher. He allowed that “there may be a market correction” but said he was not convinced AI would be the catalyst.
India and the trade agenda
On geopolitics, Dimon said the United States and China appear to be making progress ahead of a Trump-Xi summit and should “fully engage” on trade, AI and security. He urged Washington and New Delhi to resume and complete a bilateral trade agreement, noting the talks have stalled. On Indian purchases of Russian oil, he said the U.S. should weigh India’s refining requirements rather than “punishing India and the world oil markets.” Dimon projected India’s economy could triple in size over the next decade and confirmed JPMorgan will keep expanding its local footprint.