Nvidia's chief financial officer guided for 70 percent revenue growth in the fiscal year ending January 2028, a pace that would push the chipmaker's market value toward $10 trillion without requiring a premium multiple. The company, already the world's largest at roughly $5.3 trillion, would need only to execute on its own forecast and trade at the S&P 500's average earnings multiple to cross the threshold.
The math behind the milestone
Wall Street's consensus for the current fiscal year, which ends January 2027, sits at $411 billion in revenue. Applying the 70 percent growth rate Colette Kress outlined on the fiscal 2027 second-quarter call brings fiscal 2028 revenue to nearly $700 billion. At a 60 percent net margin, slightly below the trailing 64 percent, that yields about $419 billion in net income, a figure that would exceed this year's projected revenue.
The margin assumption
The 60 percent margin is the author's pencil, not company guidance. Nvidia has not confirmed that level of profitability for fiscal 2028, and the trailing 64 percent includes periods of far less competitive pressure. If margins compress even modestly, the earnings multiple required for a $10 trillion valuation rises accordingly.
The analyst track record
The projection leans on a baseline that analysts have consistently underestimated. The source notes Wall Street's history of underprojecting Nvidia's growth, though it uses the consensus $411 billion figure anyway. That tension, trusting the forecast while dismissing the forecasters, is the quiet engine of the $10 trillion case.
What to watch
The next test arrives with fiscal 2027 results and the first hard look at fiscal 2028 order visibility. Kress said clients are ordering well in advance because compute remains constrained, giving the company a clear demand signal. Whether that signal holds through a full product cycle will determine if the 70 percent figure is a trajectory or a peak.