Nebius Group shares have surged 220% over the past year after the Nvidia-backed cloud provider posted a 454% year-over-year revenue jump in the second quarter, a growth rate that has Wall Street projecting triple-digit expansion through 2027 even as the company remains unprofitable.
The growth math
Second-quarter revenue rose 454% from the same period a year earlier, and the company says the increase was organic with no acquisition boost. Analysts now model 533% sales growth for 2026 and 257% for 2027, figures that assume the AI infrastructure build-out runs through at least 2030.
The Nvidia connection
Nvidia, now the world's largest company by market value, took an equity stake in Nebius as part of a broader strategy of partnering with fast-growing AI infrastructure players. Nebius builds and leases data centers stocked with Nvidia's latest chips, a relationship that gives it early access to hardware that many larger cloud providers still wait for.
Valuation and the profit question
The stock trades at 74.6 times trailing earnings, 43.5 times forward estimates, and 41.7 times sales, multiples that look reasonable only if the growth trajectory holds. Nebius is spending heavily to capture market share and is not close to profitability, a trade-off investors have so far accepted because the addressable market keeps expanding.
What to watch
The bull case rests entirely on the growth rate staying elevated. Any deceleration below the projected curve would force a repricing that the current multiples leave little room to absorb. The next few quarters will test whether organic demand can sustain the pace without the tailwind of one-time capacity deals.