Meta Platforms shares climbed 11.8 percent to $744.41 in the session following the Muse announcement, extending a recovery that has carried the stock from a 52-week low of $520.26 toward a Street price target of $792.68. The move coincided with the release of what the company calls its most significant AI product to date: a personal agent that can execute tasks and make purchases on a user’s behalf. Muse promptly hit number two on Apple’s App Store charts, signaling immediate consumer curiosity.
The agent and the market
Bain and Company projects the U.S. agentic e-commerce market will reach $300 billion to $500 billion by 2030, representing 15 to 25 percent of total online retail. Meta is positioning Muse to capture a slice of that flow through subscription tiers: a free plan with 100 million weekly tokens, a $20 monthly tier at 500 million tokens, and a $100 tier at three billion tokens. The free allowance is large enough that many users may never hit the paywall, making near-term revenue contribution negligible while every unpaid token remains a compute cost.
The monetization math
J.P. Morgan’s Doug Anmuth wrote that “Meta is not focused on the monetization of Muse in the near term,” a reading supported by the generous free tier. He remains bullish on a total addressable market he values in the tens of trillions of dollars, a figure that exceeds the $32.5 trillion U.S. GDP and implies a very long horizon before any meaningful capture. Mizuho’s Lloyd Walmsley sees the launch as the start of a product cycle not yet reflected in the share price, a view that aligns with Morgan Stanley’s expectation that Meta will accelerate releases once its $18 billion legal settlement concludes.
The trust barrier
Oppenheimer disagrees. The firm argues adoption will be constrained by consumer distrust, citing a survey in which only 8 percent of respondents said they would trust Meta with the passwords required to unlock Muse’s full purchasing capabilities. That friction, handing over credentials to a company with a checkered privacy history, may prove a harder obstacle than compute economics or pricing strategy.
What to watch next
The next signal will be whether free-tier usage converts to paid subscriptions or simply burns GPU cycles. Analysts will also monitor if the post-settlement product cadence Morgan Stanley anticipates materializes beyond a single launch. For now, the stock prices in optimism; the business model prices in patience.