McDonald's stock has fallen 21% from its 52-week high of $341.75 to $270.64, placing it just 4% above its yearly low, even as the company delivered its fourth consecutive quarter of global comparable sales growth and first-quarter operating income rose 12% year over year to nearly $3 billion. The dividend yield has widened to 2.7% on the annual payout of $7.44, and the price-to-earnings multiple has compressed to roughly 22 times trailing earnings of $12.13, down from about 28 times at the peak.
The streak the market missed
Global comparable sales, the industry's cleanest measure of underlying demand at restaurants open more than a year, grew 3.8% in the second quarter of 2025, 3.6% in the third, 5.7% in the fourth, and 3.8% again in the first quarter of 2026. The fourth quarter also produced positive guest counts globally, meaning transactions rose alongside check averages. The U.S. segment, where investors have worried about lower-income consumer pullback, posted comparable sales gains of 6.8% in the fourth quarter and 3.9% in the first quarter. International operated markets grew 3.9% and developmental licensed markets 3.4% in the first quarter.
Franchise economics absorb the pressure
First-quarter revenue climbed 9% to about $6.5 billion, and the 45% operating margin reflects a revenue mix that insulates profits from restaurant-level cost pressure. Of the $26.9 billion in full-year 2025 revenue, $16.5 billion came from franchised restaurants, rent and royalties collected from operators who deploy their own capital and absorb food, labor and occupancy costs. That structure helped full-year operating income rise 6% and earnings per share climb 5% to $11.95, even as revenue grew only 4%.
Valuation reset without earnings reset
The entire 21% share-price decline came from multiple compression, not earnings deterioration. Trailing earnings per share rose from the period when the stock traded at its high, yet the market value has shed roughly $50 billion to about $191 billion. At 22 times earnings, the stock prices in a slower growth trajectory than the business has recently delivered, while the 2.7% yield offers a floor that was not available at the peak.
The loyalty buffer
Loyalty members generated more than $9 billion in systemwide sales in the first quarter across 70 markets, with trailing twelve-month loyalty sales exceeding $38 billion. That recurring, data-rich revenue stream adds a layer of visibility that the current multiple does not appear to credit. The question is not whether the business has changed, the last four quarters say it has not, but how long the market will keep pricing the franchise model as if it has.