Los Angeles County’s economic development arm estimates that Paramount’s threatened departure from California would cost the state between 28,990 and 57,980 full-time jobs and $10.6 billion to $21.2 billion in annual economic output, according to a leaked September 10 report. The warning arrives as David Ellison’s $111 billion merger with Warner Bros Discovery faces antitrust opposition from a coalition of blue-state attorneys general, and as Paramount signals it may relocate to Tennessee, Georgia or Texas if the AGs do not negotiate by October 1.
The relocation math
The EDC document frames the loss in permanent full-time jobs rather than job-years, a distinction the report says is appropriate because the employment would be lost to California permanently. Over the five-year window from October 1, 2026 through September 30, 2031, the county projects 2,750 to 5,550 job-years and $1.01 billion to $2.03 billion in output would vanish across all industries. The region has already shed nearly 50,000 jobs and scores of productions over the past six years.
The October 1 deadline
October 1 is not an arbitrary date. Under the merger agreement, Ellison’s side must begin paying Warner Bros Discovery shareholders $7 million every 24 hours if the deal collapses, a fee that compounds to more than $635 million per quarter. Paramount has cited these “extraordinary losses” in seeking a $1.88 billion bond from the AGs and the Writers Guild of America plaintiffs. The company has downplayed serious contemplation of a move, but the leak of the EDC report suggests the threat is being treated as credible by local officials.
The antitrust standoff
Ellison’s team filed in federal court late Friday arguing the debt-heavy acquisition should not be subject to antitrust scrutiny on employment grounds or otherwise. Court-ordered settlement talks with the AGs are scheduled for next month. Governor Gavin Newsom, Mayor Karen Bass, IATSE and the LA County Board of Supervisors, which voted unanimously in July to support the lawsuit, have all pressed for a settlement. The EDC also notes that Paramount’s post-merger commitment to produce 30 features a year for three years would generate 1,020 to 2,760 job-years and $377.7 million to $1.01 billion in output, a figure that pales against the projected exit losses.
What the source omits
The report does not specify the consideration structure of the Ellison-WBD deal, cash, stock or a mix, nor the premium to Warner Bros Discovery’s undisturbed price. No break fee or termination condition is disclosed beyond the $7 million daily ticking fee. Paramount’s stated rationale for a potential relocation is treated as a claim; the company has not confirmed a destination or timeline. The AGs’ coalition has not detailed its specific antitrust theories in the leaked material. A spring 2027 trial looms if settlement talks fail.