Goldman Sachs flagged a potential surge to $120 a barrel if Middle East shipping disruptions widen, with crude already brushing $100 after a weekend of tit-for-tat strikes that pulled the US and Iran into direct exchanges.
The weekend escalation
The bank’s co-head of global commodities research, Daan Struyven, told Bloomberg TV on Monday that recent events point to a meaningful risk of broader shipping interference. His comment followed a US strike on three Iranian tankers, launched in response to Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps ballistic missiles targeting two American warships.
Iran draws a line
Tehran signaled a shift in doctrine. Parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf declared the era of proportionate responses finished, promising future retaliation that would be faster, heavier and more painful. The new head of the Supreme National Security Council, Mohsen Rezaei, added that Iran will soon announce an exclusion zone stretching from the US naval blockade line toward the Strait of Hormuz and into the Persian Gulf, warning that any vessel identified entering the area with the intention of transiting the strait would be placed on an Iranian sanctions list.
Prices already moving
Brent topped $97 in early Asian trading Monday, its highest since mid-July, while West Texas Intermediate cleared $92. The rally reflects the market pricing in a non-trivial chance that the strait, conduit for roughly a fifth of global oil, becomes contested waterway rather than transit route.
Gas and fuels in the crosshairs
Struyven argued the upside in crude is real but said the larger supply shocks sit in natural gas and refined products, where disruptions would hit harder and faster. Investors positioning for the escalation, he suggested, should look beyond the headline benchmark.