A Government Accountability Office review of federal payroll data shows the Trump administration’s deferred resignation program generated $6.7 billion in administrative leave costs for employees who were no longer working, part of a broader 435 percent surge in paid leave spending between 2023 and 2025 that totaled $9.5 billion. The program, branded “Fork in the Road” and distributed to two million federal workers in February 2025, offered full pay and benefits through September 2025 to anyone who voluntarily quit; nearly 140,000 accepted.
The leave bill and the offer
Civilian salaries and benefits represent roughly 5.5 percent of the federal budget, yet they were the first target of Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency. The GAO attributed the bulk of the leave increase directly to the deferred resignation cohort, whose salaries continued to be paid while they performed no duties. The watchdog’s analysis covers the period through 2025, capturing the full run of the offer through its September expiration.
OPM disputes the math
OPM Director Scott Kupor rejected the GAO framing in a Substack post and a statement to Fortune, arguing the $9.5 billion one-time expense bought a reduction of 270,000 positions that yields $40 billion in annual savings, a 400 percent return on investment. The GAO, for its part, cautioned that agency reporting inconsistencies may affect the precision of the leave totals, a problem the same office flagged in 2014 when it found the Defense Department and the since-closed USAID recorded leave differently and urged OPM to standardize guidance.
Workforce shrinkage and the debt picture
Since Trump’s second inauguration, the federal workforce has contracted about 12 percent, with more than 271,000 employees departing. Musk has claimed $215 billion in savings from cancelled grants, contracts and staffing cuts, though outside analysts put the real figure well below that. Meanwhile, the federal deficit has widened and total U.S. debt has risen roughly $3.8 trillion since January 2025.
The backfill problem
Partnership for Public Service, a nonprofit that tracks federal hiring, reported last month that agencies are trying to backfill more than 20,000 positions left empty by the resignation wave. New hires carry an average General Schedule grade 1.4 levels below the employees they replace, a gap that widens to 6.1 grades in criminal investigation roles at the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives. The think tank said the experience drain is already degrading agency operations and showing up in hiring listings across 54 cities.