The G7 agreed Friday to release 100 million barrels of crude and diesel over four months, a coordinated move that headed off a US threat to ban diesel exports and briefly pushed Brent below $100 a barrel.
The trigger was a Trump ultimatum
Trump had threatened to halt diesel exports unless European nations released more of their own stocks, a lever aimed at easing US pump prices ahead of November's midterm elections. On Friday he posted that Europe had agreed to release a massive amount of heavily stocked diesel. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent framed it as protecting US farmers, truckers and businesses from carrying the burden of soaring prices.
The numbers and the market reaction
The joint statement commits G7 members and partners to a frontloaded substantial diesel release within the first 20 days, with the full 100 million barrels spread over four months under IEA coordination. Brent dipped under $100 intraday but closed around $102, still well above the roughly $73 it traded at before the US and Israel invaded Iran.
What remains unclear
It is not yet clear which partner countries will participate or how quickly volumes will hit the market. The release comprises a mix of crude and diesel; the split was not specified. Macron said the bloc agreed to up to 100 million barrels, while the joint statement cited a firm 100 million figure.
The supply backdrop
Over half of UK diesel is imported, 31 percent of that from the US. US refineries produce 4-5 million barrels a day, consume 3.6 million, and export 1.2-1.5 million, making the export threat a genuine lever. The G7 also pledged to coordinate refinery maintenance and encourage higher diesel runs.