The artificial intelligence build-out has turned a handful of semiconductor companies into the fastest-growing large businesses on the planet, but the math for holding through 2030 depends on whether today’s supply constraints and margin peaks survive the next spending cycle. Nvidia, Broadcom, Marvell and Micron each posted triple-digit or near-triple-digit revenue gains in their most recent quarters, yet their valuations already price in very different futures.
Nvidia’s platform bet stops at next year
Nvidia’s fiscal second quarter of 2027, which closed July 26, delivered revenue of $96.2 billion, up 106 percent from the same period a year earlier. Data-center sales accounted for $89 billion of that total. Management told analysts in late August that fiscal 2028 revenue should climb roughly 70 percent, a pace it described as capped by supply rather than demand. At roughly $212 per share, the stock changes hands at about 14 times estimated fiscal 2028 earnings, a multiple that effectively stops rewarding growth after next year. The four-year test is whether the company remains the default platform for AI compute, networking and software while its largest customers pour billions into home-grown alternatives.
Broadcom’s custom franchise has a delivery deadline
Broadcom’s AI semiconductor revenue reached $16.7 billion in the fiscal third quarter ended August 2, a 221 percent increase from a year earlier and a 54 percent jump from the prior quarter. Chips designed for a single customer made up 73 percent of that figure. Chief executive Hock Tan said the company has locked in the manufacturing capacity to lift AI revenue to roughly $115 billion in fiscal 2027 and to $230 billion in the following year. The shares trade at about 18 times expected fiscal 2027 earnings. The bet here is pure execution: a short list of cloud giants and AI labs must take delivery of billions of dollars of custom accelerators on schedule, year after year.
Marvell runs the same play at a steeper multiple
Marvell reported $2.7 billion of revenue in its fiscal second quarter ended August 1, with data-center sales rising 46 percent. Chief executive Matt Murphy now targets roughly $18 billion of revenue in fiscal 2028, up from about $12 billion in the current fiscal year, with the custom-chip business more than doubling along the way. The stock commands about 33 times projected fiscal 2028 earnings, the richest multiple of the group. That valuation only holds if the design wins behind the forecast keep ramping without delay.
Micron sits at the cyclical peak
Micron’s fiscal third quarter ended May 28 produced $41.5 billion of revenue, more than four times the year-earlier level. Adjusted gross margin surged to 84.9 percent from 39 percent a year ago. Guidance for the fiscal fourth quarter, which wrapped in early September, calls for roughly the same revenue level. The shares change hands at about six times analysts’ fiscal 2027 earnings estimates, a price that assumes today’s record memory profitability will fade. The four-year hold rests on whether AI-driven demand can keep memory pricing above the historical cycle trough.