Broadcom told investors on its latest earnings call that it expects roughly $230 billion of AI semiconductor revenue in 2028, a figure that would more than triple the company's trailing twelve-month revenue of less than $90 billion. The projection, if realized, would reshape the revenue mix of a business that currently derives about half its sales from non-AI segments.
The custom silicon bet
Broadcom is not chasing the general-purpose GPU market dominated by Nvidia. Instead, it designs application-specific integrated circuits for a handful of hyperscale customers, Alphabet, Meta Platforms, OpenAI and Anthropic, tailoring each chip to a single workload. Alphabet's Tensor Processing Units account for the largest volume of AI chips Broadcom produces, and management said demand for the next generation of TPUs should extend into 2028 and 2029.
The revenue ramp
The company guided for $58 billion of AI semiconductor revenue in the current year, rising to $115 billion next year before reaching the $230 billion target in 2028. Wall Street estimates total revenue of $106 billion for this year, implying the legacy businesses contribute about $48 billion. Assuming those units grow at 10 percent annually, they would add roughly $58 billion by 2028, bringing combined revenue to $288 billion.
Margin arithmetic
Because custom AI chips carry higher margins than the legacy portfolio, Broadcom's blended profitability has been climbing. The source projects a 50 percent operating margin by 2028, which on $288 billion of revenue would yield $144 billion of operating profit. At a 30-times earnings multiple, that implies a market capitalization of $4.3 trillion, more than double the current $1.7 trillion valuation at $358 per share. The math works out to a share price above $900.
What to watch
The forecast hinges on three moving parts: hyperscaler demand holding to the 2028-2029 timeline, supply-chain capacity keeping pace with the ramp, and the legacy business delivering the assumed 10 percent growth. Any slippage on the TPU roadmap or a shift toward merchant silicon would break the revenue bridge. The market is pricing in execution; the next two earnings cycles will show whether the pipeline converts to backlog.