Broadcom reports fiscal third-quarter results after the close on Sept. 2, and the only number that matters is the one management refused to raise last time. The stock has already risen 4.5% on Nvidia’s 8.7% post-earnings surge, a sympathetic rally that assumes AI demand lifts all boats. Whether that assumption survives contact with Broadcom’s own guidance is the test.
The estimates that frame the quarter
Consensus expects $29.43 billion in revenue, an 84% year-over-year jump that accelerates from 48% in the prior quarter. Adjusted EPS of $3.22 implies 91% growth versus 54% last time. The fourth-quarter revenue estimate sits just below $35 billion, baking in a further acceleration to 94%. Broadcom does not issue EPS guidance; it points to a 68% adjusted EBITDA margin instead. The market will treat anything short of a beat across all three as a miss.
The AI chip line that drives the narrative
Management guided for $16 billion in AI semiconductor sales this quarter, a 200% year-over-year increase. That figure is the anchor, but it may not be the ceiling. Bernstein’s Stacy Rasgon estimates hyperscalers will deploy nine to 10 gigawatts of Broadcom silicon in fiscal 2027. At $20 billion of content per gigawatt, the math yields $180 billion to $200 billion of AI chip revenue, well above the company’s current “over $100 billion” FY2027 guide. Even conservative per-gigawatt assumptions clear the $100 billion mark comfortably.
The guidance decision that moved the stock last time
Broadcom held the FY2027 AI revenue guide steady last quarter. The stock fell nearly 20% in two sessions, a decline amplified by the share price sitting near its all-time high. The refusal to raise a number that analyst math suggests is already stale became the story. Raising it now would be the cleanest catalyst; holding it again would invite the same punishment.
What the market is pricing
Shares trade at $369.55, a 61.6 times P/E on a 0.7% yield. The consensus price target of $491.97 implies 33.6% upside. Insiders have been selling. Short interest is described as healthy. The projected earnings growth rate is 71.3%. All of that is backdrop. The forecast is a binary event: does the FY2027 AI number move, or does it not?