Russian crude crossed the 50 percent threshold of India’s import barrel for the first time in July, a milestone that underscores how thoroughly the trade has rewired since the invasion of Ukraine. The world’s third-largest oil buyer took 2.47 million barrels a day from Russia last month, a 62.4 percent jump from July 2025 that pushed Moscow’s share to 50.83 percent of total inflows.
The fiscal-year backdrop
Since India’s new fiscal year began on April 1, Russian volumes have averaged above 2 million barrels daily, comprising more than 42 percent of imports. A year earlier the same share sat at 37 percent. The pace makes Russia the dominant supplier by a wide margin; the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia trailed at 617,000 and 586,000 barrels a day respectively in July, per Kpler data.
July dipped from June’s peak
The July figure still represents a pullback from June’s record 2.6 million barrels a day, the highest monthly average on record for the route. Kpler’s parallel estimate of 2.45 million barrels a day confirms the dip, though both sources agree the flow persisted even after a U.S. sanctions waiver on these shipments expired.
The sanctions bill waiting in the wings
A Senate-passed bill would impose 100 percent tariffs on goods from nations that purchase Russian crude, a measure aimed squarely at this trade. The legislation has not cleared the House. Traders note that replacing these volumes would be difficult while Middle East conflict constrains alternative supply, even with U.S. exports running at records.
What matters next
The House vote is the immediate catalyst. Beyond that, the test is whether Indian refiners can sustain 2-million-barrel-a-day intake if secondary sanctions tighten vessel availability or insurance. The share number is historic; the durability of the supply chain is the open question.