Reliance Industries has shed roughly Rs 4 lakh crore of market capitalization this year as its shares tumbled 21%, a decline that has also dragged on the Nifty50 where the conglomerate carries an 8% weighting.
The tax trigger
In March the government reinstated windfall taxes on diesel and aviation turbine fuel exports, reversing a prior decision to scrap them. The move came as authorities tried to recapture revenue from the energy sector after the Middle East conflict sent global oil prices higher. Reliance, which exports a large share of the ATF and diesel produced at its twin Jamnagar refineries, facilities that turn out about five million tonnes of ATF annually, or a quarter of India's total, took the hit directly.
Margins versus momentum
Refining and petrochemical cracks have strengthened since then, yet the stock has stayed range-bound. Vaqarjaved Khan, a SEBI-registered research analyst at Angel One, says the 21% slide reflects near-term earnings and valuation pressure rather than a breakdown in the core oil-to-chemicals business. He points to West Asia disruptions that have lifted crude premiums and freight costs while domestic fuel retail under-recoveries have eaten into the benefit of stronger cracks.
Technicals stay bearish
SBI Securities' Sudeep Shah notes the relative strength index has fallen below 40 and the stock trades well beneath its key moving averages. The price structure shows no reversal signal; resistance sits at Rs 1,275-1,280 and the bearish bias holds as long as the price remains below that band. "At current levels, it may be prudent to avoid buying the dip. Buying can be considered only after strong reversal signals emerge," Shah said.
Funding plans continue
Separately, the company plans to raise Rs 12,500 crore through a five-year bond issuance, a reminder that capital needs persist even as the equity market reassesses the conglomerate's near-term trajectory.