Novo Nordisk shares fell 10% last week after its experimental cardiovascular drug ziltivekimab failed to prevent heart attacks, strokes or cardiovascular deaths in a Phase III trial. The setback matters because the drug was supposed to prove the company can still invent blockbusters beyond the GLP-1 franchise that now generates more than 90% of sales.
The pipeline hole
Analysts at Goldman Sachs had flagged ziltivekimab as a potential route into a new market and a hedge against reliance on obesity and diabetes treatments. Instead the trial flop confirmed what the share price has been signaling for months: the pipeline is thin. Since 2024 Novo Nordisk’s stock has dropped 70% while Eli Lilly’s has nearly doubled, a divergence that accelerated after Lilly outlined plans to launch its own weight-loss pill in Europe and the U.K. in early 2027.
The numbers underneath
The decline deepened this week when first-half results triggered a further 6% slide despite a 7% rise in adjusted sales to DKK 78.5 billion ($12.1 billion) and a raised full-year outlook. Investors appear to be pricing the growth they can see and discounting the growth they cannot. CFO Karsten Munk Knudsen described the past year as a “rocky road” and disclosed that headcount is now 12,000 lower than a year ago after a 9,000-job cut announced in September 2025 targeting $1.2 billion in savings. He said no second round of companywide redundancies is planned.
The weight-loss bet
Novo Nordisk is leaning harder into the franchise it already owns. CEO Mike Doustdar said the Wegovy pill will launch in Germany “soon” with other European markets to follow after EU approval in July. He cited 80% volume growth at a global scale as evidence the market is far from saturated. JPMorgan Global Research forecasts the GLP-1 and weight-loss market will reach $200 billion by 2030. Jefferies puts the peak at $80 billion. The spread between those numbers is the spread between a durable moat and a maturing fad.
The M&A backdrop
Speculation about an AstraZeneca-Bristol Myers Squibb tie-up, reported by the Financial Times this week, would create a $400 billion entity and the world’s fourth-largest drugmaker. Knudsen declined to comment on the rumor but noted that any megadeal would likely bring cost cutting and antitrust scrutiny. Strategic acquisitions remain core to Novo Nordisk’s stated strategy, though the source text ends before detailing specific targets.