TotalEnergies chief executive Patrick Pouyanne put a price on the risk premium for moving oil through the Strait of Hormuz on Monday: about $20 million per very large crude carrier, or roughly $10 a barrel in additional freight. The figure lays bare the margin available to shipowners and traders willing to sail the waterway six months into the Iran war, even as Brent futures held above $90 a barrel.
The discount and the freight
Pouyanne said TotalEnergies is purchasing barrels inside the Persian Gulf at $50 to $60 below the international benchmark, a discount that reflects producers' urgency to place cargoes after half a year of conflict. The French major is one of the largest lifters of Iraqi and Qatari crude, two origins that have kept loading through Hormuz in recent weeks. Those volumes, which before the war accounted for roughly a fifth of global oil flows, have helped cap the benchmark below $100 even as freight costs have exploded.
The split market
The chief executive described a bifurcation. Crude markets look bearish in part because Hormuz flows continue, while product markets remain tight. Gasoline and diesel prices have rallied on the back of Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries and the fact that crude dominates the cargoes transiting the strait. Refiners paying the $20 million transit fee are effectively subsidizing the crude discount, but the product crack spreads suggest the arithmetic still works for anyone with a hull and the risk appetite.
The risk backdrop
The comments came as the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations reported a tanker struck by an unknown projectile 63 nautical miles west of Yanbu, Saudi Arabia, early Monday. A fire broke out on the main deck though all crew were reported safe. The incident underscores the physical risk that underpins the $20 million freight rate, even as the Houthis escalate a campaign against Saudi-bound shipping.
What the terms imply
The $20 million figure is a freight rate, not a war-risk premium alone, and it implies a daily charter equivalent that dwarfs pre-war levels. Pouyanne did not disclose charter durations, break fees, or whether the $50-to-$60 discount applies to term contracts or spot cargoes. The absence of those details leaves the true leverage between buyer and seller opaque, but the spread between the Gulf discount and the freight cost suggests the middleman captures the bulk of the risk premium.