Oil shipments leaving the Persian Gulf have climbed back to roughly two-thirds of the volumes seen before the Iran conflict erupted, Goldman Sachs estimates, a recovery that could keep a lid on crude prices even if the fighting persists. The bank puts total Middle Eastern crude and product exports at 15 million to 16 million barrels a day, up 5 million to 6 million bpd from the March trough but still 7 million to 8 million bpd shy of February’s pace.
The numbers behind the rebound
Goldman’s analysts calculate that flows through the Strait of Hormuz alone are now running near the U.S. government’s estimate of 8 million to 10 million bpd. That marks a sharp turnaround from mid-July, when traders put the strait’s throughput at only about 4 million bpd. The broader regional total has risen in recent weeks, though it remains well below the pre-war baseline.
Shippers adapt with dark fleets and transfers
The investment bank attributes the pickup to a surge in “dark” voyages by specialized tankers and a rise in ship-to-ship transfers, signaling that producers and shippers have reworked their logistics around the conflict. Those under-the-radar movements, Goldman says, moderate the upside risk to crude even if Middle East disruptions stretch out further.
Qatar and Kuwait follow the UAE playbook
Anonymous traders told Bloomberg this week that Qatar and Kuwait have each lifted exports through Hormuz to about 70 percent of pre-war levels, mimicking the United Arab Emirates’ earlier use of shuttle runs and ship-to-ship operations in the Gulf of Oman. The combined effect has pushed total strait flows to roughly 7 million to 8 million bpd, roughly double the July nadir.
Price implications and what to watch
The creative workarounds have kept oil moving, albeit at a substantially reduced rate compared with February. For now, the adaptation caps the geopolitical risk premium, but the gap to normal volumes remains wide enough that any fresh escalation could quickly tighten the market again.