Ford Motor raised its 2026 profit forecast after a second-quarter earnings beat that masked a revenue miss, sending shares up 7% in after-hours trading as the automaker signaled its F-Series pickup recovery is finally gaining traction. The Detroit company posted adjusted earnings of 42 cents a share against a 35-cent consensus, though automotive revenue of $44.89 billion fell short of the $45.86 billion estimate and total revenue declined 4% year over year to $48.3 billion.
Guidance moves on operational discipline
The full-year adjusted EBIT range moved to $10 billion to $11 billion from $8.5 billion to $10.5 billion, while adjusted free cash flow guidance rose to $6 billion to $7 billion from $5 billion to $6 billion. The cash flow upgrade includes a $500 million acceleration of a previously announced $1.3 billion tariff reimbursement. Ford Blue, the traditional combustion business, accounted for $500 million of the EBIT improvement with a new range of $5 billion to $5.5 billion. The fleet business, Ford Pro, saw its range narrowed to $7 billion to $7.5 billion from a prior low end of $6.5 billion. Model e losses were trimmed to roughly $4 billion from a previous $4 billion to $4.5 billion range.
The EV charge and the aluminum problem
A $1.3 billion net loss, wider than the $36 million loss a year earlier, was driven by $4.2 billion in one-time charges tied to the company's strategic pullback from all-electric vehicles. That included $3.6 billion for restructuring the BlueOval SK battery joint venture with SK On and $500 million for a canceled EV program. CFO Sherry House said the F-Series recovery, hampered since Novelis suffered two fires at its New York aluminum plant, will continue into the back half and deliver a net $1 billion EBIT improvement versus 2025, heavily weighted to the second half. Production restarted last month. Ford now expects to recover about $2.5 billion of lost vehicle volume, the low end of a prior $3 billion range, due to the mix of vehicles slated for production this year.
What to watch
The company reconfirmed $1 billion in material and warranty cost reductions despite a recent wave of recalls. Jefferies upgraded both Ford and General Motors ahead of the report, a signal that Wall Street is warming to the idea that the legacy automakers' messy EV transition may finally be priced in. The real test comes in the second half: whether the F-Series ramp delivers the promised $1 billion EBIT lift and whether the tariff reimbursement arrives on schedule.