A research piece published this week argues that $5,000 placed in Constellation Energy could become roughly $11,500 by 2036, but the math requires a nuclear plant restart that has never been completed in the United States. The projection leans on management guidance for more than 20% annualized base earnings growth through 2029 and a valuation multiple that compresses from today’s 21.9 times to a conservative 18 times. If the Crane Clean Energy Center in Pennsylvania does not come back online, the earnings trajectory and the long-term contracts tied to it unravel.
The backdrop is a power market flashing scarcity signals. U.S. electricity use is expected to hit a record 4,269 billion kilowatt-hours this year and climb to 4,399 billion in 2027, according to the Energy Information Administration. The Trump administration has set a target of quadrupling nuclear capacity from roughly 100 gigawatts in 2024 to 400 gigawatts by 2050, and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission has proposed rule changes to make licensing more predictable. In the latest PJM Interconnection capacity auction, the price hit the temporary cap of $325 per megawatt-day, PJM estimated it would have reached $554.72 without the cap, and the auction still secured 6.8 gigawatts less than the grid operator said it needed.
Constellation, which operates the largest U.S. nuclear fleet and expanded to about 55 gigawatts after acquiring Calpine, has locked in more than 5,650 megawatts of long-term clean energy agreements as of March 31. Those include 20-year deals to supply Meta Platforms from the Clinton plant in Illinois and Microsoft from the planned Crane restart, plus a 176-megawatt agreement with Walmart added in June. Management sees 2026 base earnings per share of $6.65 to $6.75; applying the stated growth targets lifts base EPS to about $22.56 by 2036. Assuming base earnings represent 70% of total by then, adjusted EPS reaches roughly $32.23. At 18 times earnings, that implies a share price near $580 versus the July 16 close of $251.77.
The $11,500 outcome on a $5,000 stake excludes dividends and assumes the multiple contraction is the only valuation surprise. It also assumes Constellation integrates Calpine cleanly, services the acquisition debt, and delivers every project tied to those long-term contracts. The Crane restart is the linchpin: no fully closed U.S. nuclear plant has ever completed such a restart. If Crane slips, the Microsoft contract, the EPS ramp, and the scarcity premium all get repriced at once.
Cameco offers the other side of the nuclear trade, two high-grade Canadian uranium mines, conversion and fuel services, and a 49% stake in Westinghouse. The source text cuts off before detailing its ten-year projection, but the logic is similar: tighter uranium supply, rising reactor ambitions, and a bet that policy momentum survives election cycles.
What to watch next is not the earnings model but the physics. The NRC’s licensing reforms, the next PJM auction, and the first concrete milestone at Crane will tell whether the scarcity narrative is backed by steel and concrete or just by spreadsheets.