Jefferies cut Apple to underperform on Monday, slashing its price target to $263.66 from $285.56 and becoming the sixth firm to assign a sell-equivalent rating, a concentration last seen in 2012, months after Steve Jobs died. The move reflects a structural doubt: that Apple can no longer push average selling prices higher through new form factors, even as memory costs erode margins and iPhone growth decelerates sharply.
The canceled glass iPhone and the foldable bet
Jefferies analysts said supply-chain checks showed Apple had scrapped the all-glass iPhone planned for the 20th anniversary next year, a device the firm had modeled as a premium ASP driver. The expected foldable, which may be unveiled at the September event, is now the sole margin catalyst, but memory inflation pushes its estimated price to $2,199 for 256 gigabytes and $3,099 for 2 terabytes. The analysts wrote that introducing new form factors to lift ASP “is more difficult than expected,” a statement that reads less like a supply-chain observation than an admission that the product roadmap has narrowed.
Six sell ratings and the 2012 parallel
Bloomberg counts at least six firms now at sell or underweight, matching the 2012 high. KeyBanc moved to underweight in July on iPhone demand concerns. The clustering is notable not for its size, six out of dozens of coverages, but for its timing: it arrives as the company guides to mid-teens iPhone revenue growth for the current quarter, a steep step down from the 22 percent posted in the June quarter, and warns that gross margins will come under pressure.
Ternus takes the helm amid the foldable launch
John Ternus succeeds Tim Cook as chief executive next month, stepping into the role the same week Apple is expected to unveil its first foldable. Fortune reported last month that investors are pressuring Ternus to restore product-design momentum and deliver on AI. The transition is unusual: a hardware-led executive taking over while the flagship product cycle depends on a form factor that Jefferies says will be margin-dilutive at launch because of memory costs.
Memory concentration and the CXMT wildcard
Cook has blamed the DRAM oligopoly, Micron, SK Hynix, Samsung, for the cost surge driven by AI data-center demand, which also forced recent Mac and iPad price increases. Apple is reportedly testing chips from China’s CXMT, a move that would invite White House scrutiny. Running more AI on-device, which Cook calls a “competitive weapon,” only increases the memory intensity per device. The supply chain, in other words, is now a strategic constraint, not just a cost line.